12/14/2023 China (International Christian Concern) —  American thinktank Pew Research reports the official Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) shows between 2010 and 2018, the share of Chinese adults who formally identify with Christianity remained stable at about 2% (about 29 million people) of the population.  

With heavy religious restrictions from the Cultural Revolution ending in the 1970s, the number of people converting to Christianity in the 1980s and 1990s increased significantly. However, these official Chinese government figures from the CGSS indicate that this growth in the Chinese church has slowed down in recent years. How trustworthy are these official figures? What is the actual number of Christians in China? If growth is indeed slowing down, why is it slowing down? 

These are important questions to ask given the murkiness and lack of reliable data on religious affiliation from China’s Communist government.  

Are these official figures trustworthy?  

This is difficult to answer. The consensus is that any official count of Christian numbers in China would be conservative, especially given the large number of unregistered or house churches across the country. In 2018, Pew reported that the China Family Panel, another Chinese government agency, found that 3% of Chinese believed exclusively in the Christian God. Also in 2018, the State Council of the People’s Republic of China White Paper on Religious Freedom reported there were 38 million Protestants. In 2010, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences estimated more than 23 million Protestants. Whatever way you look at it, the numbers are confusing and give no clear indication of the numbers and, therefore, the state of Christianity in China. 

What is the actual number of Christians in China?  

Again, this is notoriously hard to accurately determine. Different Christian research and church planting ministries estimate that between 6% to 9% of China are Christians (putting the number between 85 to 128 million Christians). These are clearly different numbers from the Communist figures in the CGSS released recently. In ICC’s view, the numbers that mission organizations are using are likely to be more accurate. 

If the number of Christians is actually declining, why is that the case?  

Persecution and pressure from the Communist government are two main factors. Christianity has been under attack since President Xi Jinping came into power in 2013. The spike in Sinicization in China, the official ban on religious education for children, the spread of the Communist party into Hong Kong, and the increased imprisonment of pastors and Christians and attacks on churches are just some of the factors that have impacted the numbers of Christians in China. But regardless of this persecution, the church in China perseveres and grows and we give thanks to God for this continually! 

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