ICC Note: This is not a persecution article per se but will give readers an understanding of the undercurrents in the region. Iran is the player that is pulling all the levers in the region ( Iraq , Lebanon , Palestine ). They are maneuvering to be a regional and world power. The current Iranian regime is virulently anti Christian. Wherever they gain the upper hand, the Christians will suffer terribly.
Mideast Turmoil: Countervailing Forces
Dr. Ziad Asali, president of the American Task Force on Palestine , says he agrees with Aaron Millers assessment. And he adds one cannot isolate the assassination of Lebanese cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel from developments in Iraq , Iran , and Palestine .
He suggests that the failure of U.S. policy is related to a lack of comprehension of what makes the region tick and an imposition of Western assumptions about the region.
He notes that this latest political assassination is the 35th since Lebanon gained its independence in 1943, and all 6 victims in the past 2 years have been anti-Syrian. Mr. Miller suggests that Lebanon shows the limits of what a great power can do when it meddles, somewhat unwisely, in the affairs of small tribes. But he says he does not foresee civil war there, partly because Lebanon s Christian community is not strong enough to mount an effective challenge to Hezbollah, and he predicts that both Iran and Syria will continue to play an important role.
Ziad Asali suggests that the emergence of Iran as a regional super power is directly related to the destruction of Iraq , combined with a friendly regime in Syria , Hezbollah, and Hamas. The most important decision Washington has to make, Dr. Asali says, is whether to deal with Iran through confrontation or through negotiation. Aaron Miller calls it a paradox that, in attempting to topple Saddam Hussein and eliminate the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the region, Washington has unintentionally accelerated the emergence of Iranian W-M-Ds and parties hostile to American interests.
He suggests that Iran is an even more dangerous rival than Saddam Husseins Iraq . But he says the best way to deal with Tehran is unclear because of Iran s internal political tensions. Ambassador Miller believes that Washington and Tehran have mutually exclusive agendas on some core issues whether Iran should be allowed to pursue its nuclear programs or to support non-state actors such as Hezbollah and Hamas. In Syria , he says, a weak and insecure leadership has allied itself with Iran .
Ziad Asali argues that the Syrian position in the region is weaker since the assassination of Pierre Gemayel and suggests that Damascus has lost the support of Saudi Arabia . Aaron Miller says this is clearly a Shia decade and it may even turn into a Shia century, and so he doubts the value of trying to coordinate a Sunni response to this phenomenon. But Dr. Asali thinks it unlikely the Sunni Arab states will be willing to concede hegemony to Iran in any foreseeable future.
Furthermore, the threat posed by Iran provides a greater incentive for the United States , Israel , and the Palestinians to work together on a solution to the Palestine issue than at any time in the past.
Aaron Miller says he thinks that the U.S. administration should seize this opportunity to transform the environment that now exists between Israelis and Palestinians, which might enable its successor to facilitate negotiations that could lead to the emergence of a Palestinian state living in peace and security beside Israel.
