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ICC NOTE: A peace treaty between the Islamic North and Christian South was hailed as a great victory, but much remains to be seen as far as follow through from the central government. Even as the South has an opportunity to break free in five years, the matter of oil on their land is an issue. The strategy of the central government may be changing because of the treaty but it has not changed its agenda.

Khartoum is dishonoring the CPA

Saturday 12 August 2006

For the full article go to the Sudan Tribune

By Nhial Tiitmamer de Nhial

August 11, 2006 — In his address to the jubilant mammoth crowd in Naivasha, Kenya following the signing of the security arrangement protocol in 2003 which separates the SPLA from the SAF during the six years interim period, the late SPLA leader Dr. John Garang said and I quote, “No gentlemen from Khartoum will come to Juba this time and say that the South Sudan parliament is dissolved because the SPLA as a guarantor will protect it.”

In fact the late Dr. Garang was referring to the Addis Abba Agreement which president Nimeiri abrogated while the poor Southerners watched helplessly without doing anything because they did not have army of their own. The Any Nya forces were absorbed into the Sudan armed forces which made it impossible to react accordingly. Garang assured the Southerners that the SPLA will protect the interest of the Southerners in the CPA during the interim period.

This time round the gentlemen from Khartoum are not doing it the Nimeiri method but they are doing it in their own astute manner. In fact they graduated from the same Nimeiri School of Dishonoring agreements and in addition, have watched their former boss do it. Now they have perfected the art and any fools should not be forced into believing that the guys are not way above their boss in perfection.

The method this time round is not telling the Southerners that South Sudan parliament is dissolved but rather it is the refusal to implement key protocols in spirit and letter. For instant, the Abyei protocol has been refused being implemented – Abyei Boundaries Commission (ABC) has been rejected by the National Congress Party and Abyei Administration has not been formed. South-North boundary as of January 1956 is on the verge of being discarded.

The dishonoring of the CPA one by one began with the allocation of the ministries during the formation of the government of national unity. Under the power sharing protocol, the ministries are classified into three categories: there are 9 sovereignty ministries, 10 economy ministries and 11 service ministries. The SPLM was supposed to get 3 sovereign ministries, 3 economy ministries and 4 service ministries.

Instead of that, the SPLM ended up with less powerful ministries. In the sovereignty cluster, the SPLM was given the ministry of foreign affairs but went to a gentleman the majority of Southerners considered as not representing their interests as seen by sharp criticism in the way the minister handled the Darfur problem, Southern Sudanese Massacre in Egypt and many other incidents the minister has been seen as not speaking on their behalf.

On the economy dockets, the energy fiasco is the biggest of all that that showed a huge lack of faith on the side of the NCP to implement the CPA in spirit and letter. The SPLM claimed that they should take energy ministry because the NCP was taking the finance docket as the two departments are the backbones of the country’s economic power. The NCP did not listen to the words of the good SPLM negotiators. Feared about taking their constituents back to war or whatever might have been their reason of giving up, the SPLM negotiators finally relinquished their bid and the NCP scheme succeeded.

All the ministries given to the SPLM have either been tactfully split into two or three or are less powerful and useless. That was actually the shooting of salvo to test if their partners are strong enough to twist arms with or to see if they have the teeth of a crocodile but they instead (SPLM) showed the Nile Perch teeth and later on cried with crocodile tears.

What if the SPLM/SPLA had gone to war over the energy ministry? Did it deserve going back to war? Yes of course, it deserves going back to war because the energy ministry holds the keys to economic power. Economic power is everything. Political power can not work without economic power. In fact, even trying diplomacy such as going back to IGAD would have worked out. In fact, it is a spillage of milk but we should not forget where we went wrong – a grave mistake – the beginning of our fall that gave our opponents a chance to stage other schemes against us.

One of the other (NCP’s) schemes apart from refusing to implement key parts of the protocols is to run the corruption syndicates to implicate the best to do in the corruption and get the public to lose faith in them and force them to leave( The last issue of Sudan Today speaks volume). Another one is to deprive the GoSS ministries of funds as much as possible to paralyze the running of South Sudan so that the Southerners will appear incompetent to rule themselves — resulting in no independence in 2011

.Part of the scheme is bribing the ones trying to be active and make things work to sit back or if they do not heed that, you threaten them with death. By doing that no development will happen and the people will not get the fruits of the CPA which are construction of hospitals, roads, schools, airports, waterways, bridges, agriculture development – mechanization of farming methods to increase food production, both local and foreign investments and refugees return you name them.

The other part of the scheme is to make it impossible for the SPLA to be transformed into a formidable conventional and professional army that has every thing to make defense and offense more than the ability it has during the guerilla time. This is seen in the way the SPLA soldiers are not being given their regular salaries and some special treatment as their counterparts.

Further more, the old tactic of divide and rule plays its greatest role as ever. Southern ethnic based militias are being developed everywhere in Southern Sudan to give way to violence instead of peace and development. Southern ethnic groups are being instigated against each other so that they engage in conflict so that they do not get a common ground to decide their fate in 2011.

It does not need a rocket scientist to discover that the Sudan Islamist government accepted the agreement to give them time and space to prepare for big offensive or as a way to open a new front. For sure the new front now is discarding the agreement one by one. If the South – North border is not being implemented, how will the South decides her destiny in 2011? NCP does not want the areas that belonged to South Sudan as of January 1956 to be part of South Sudan because they contained oil. This is the reason of trying not to consider the issue of border in the Machakos protocol.

My question is how long will the SPLM/SPLA remain passive to take action against such serious violation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement? Their diplomatic effort such as going to Washington and talking about the slow or rather stagnant stage the CPA has reached is appreciated. It can effectively help but while doing that we need the language which the NIF can understand. South Sudan must fight both on diplomacy, defense and on offense against such an attempt by the Islamic Arab Elite Club to dishonor the CPA